Warren Buffett has decided to modify the rules of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)’s annual March Madness bracket contest, making it slightly easier for employees to win a substantial cash prize. The billionaire investor, who has hosted the contest for nearly a decade, expressed a desire to see someone claim the $1 million prize while he is still chairman. Employees now have a heightened chance of winning a payout, as the eligibility criteria have been adjusted. The competition, which has previously seen no major winners, continues to attract widespread interest among the more than 400,000 workers at Berkshire Hathaway subsidiaries.
When Buffett first introduced a similar competition in 2014, it was in partnership with Quicken Loans and promised $1 billion to anyone who could submit a perfect bracket. Despite high participation rates, no one has ever achieved perfection, as the statistical odds are staggeringly low. Over the years, Buffett has gradually revised the rules, attempting to make the contest more achievable. The latest adjustment, which reduces the number of correct predictions needed for a payout, is the most significant modification so far.
How have the contest rules changed?
Previously, employees needed to correctly predict the first 48 games of the NCAA tournament to win the $1 million prize. This year, however, a new one-time offer has been introduced. Any participant who successfully predicts at least 30 of the 32 first-round games will be eligible for the payout. Additionally, the standard consolation prize for the employee with the most accurate bracket has increased from $100,000 to $250,000.
Is there still a chance to win the annual grand prize?
The long-standing challenge of correctly picking every game leading to the “Sweet 16” remains in place. Employees who accomplish this feat will continue to receive $1 million annually for the rest of their lives. Since the contest began in its current form in 2016, no one has won this grand prize. However, if either Creighton University or the University of Nebraska Omaha—Buffett’s hometown teams—reach the final round, the reward will be doubled.
Buffett’s enthusiasm for basketball has shaped his approach to the contest, which has become a notable annual event within Berkshire Hathaway. While some observers see the competition as a morale booster for employees, others view it as an experiment in probability and decision-making. The odds of predicting a perfect bracket remain nearly impossible, with the NCAA estimating the chances at 1 in 9.2 quintillion.
Elon Musk has offered his perspective on the challenge, suggesting that artificial intelligence could eventually improve bracket predictions.
“Buffett wasn’t counting on this,”
Musk remarked when discussing his AI company xAI’s Grok-3 model and its research capabilities. Meanwhile, Musk has also launched his own March Madness contest on X, in partnership with UberEats, promising a variety of prizes, including a trip to Mars via SpaceX’s Starship.
Buffett remains optimistic that the rule changes will increase the likelihood of a winner this year.
“We made it easier this year than ever,”
he stated, emphasizing the potential excitement a winner would generate. By loosening the requirements, more employees may feel encouraged to participate, though the statistical odds of success remain steep. The contest continues to blend corporate engagement with one of the most unpredictable sporting events, reinforcing its appeal among Berkshire Hathaway employees.
