Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) Inc. is expected to spearhead a resurgence in global smartphone sales, which have been declining since 2017. Research firm Counterpoint predicts that Apple may surpass Samsung as the leading smartphone vendor, driven by innovations in AI-enabled and foldable phones. The potential for Apple to dominate the market relies heavily on its new AI features and future ventures into foldable smartphones. While the overall market is projected to improve, geopolitical issues could pose challenges.
Counterpoint’s forecast indicates global smartphone sales will increase by 5% to 1.23 billion units in 2024, followed by another 3% rise in 2025. This anticipated growth contrasts with the recent downward trend in the industry. Foldable smartphones, currently led by Chinese brands like Huawei and Honor, will play a significant role in this recovery. If Apple enters this segment by 2027, the market could expand even faster.
AI Innovation as a Catalyst
AI-driven smartphones are seen as crucial for boosting sales. Apple’s forthcoming AI-enabled models are expected to propel its market share and potentially enable it to overtake Samsung in annual shipments by 2025. Senior Analyst Harmeet Singh Walia stated,
“Apple’s AI (Apple Intelligence), available in its upcoming models, will boost GenAI devices in the whole smartphone market. It could create an opportunity for Apple to rise to the top in annual shipments as soon as in 2025.”
Foldable Phones Driving Growth
Another significant growth area is foldable smartphones, primarily driven by Chinese manufacturers. Analysts believe that if Apple enters this market as anticipated in 2027, it will accelerate growth even further. Despite this optimism, some experts express concerns that Apple’s upcoming AI iOS 18 may not sufficiently differentiate the iPhone 16 from its predecessor, the iPhone 15.
In 2017, global smartphone sales were already declining, and attempts to rejuvenate the market had limited success. Earlier predictions mainly focused on hardware improvements rather than software innovations. While foldable phones were emerging, they hadn’t yet captured significant market share. Today, the landscape has shifted, with AI and software enhancements taking center stage. The potential entry of Apple into the foldable segment marks a significant shift from previous market dynamics.
Earlier this decade, many believed the smartphone market had reached saturation, and major growth seemed unlikely. However, today’s forecasts are more optimistic, crediting advancements in AI and new form factors like foldable phones. These changes reflect a broader shift in the industry, driven by technological innovation and evolving consumer preferences.
Overall, Apple is well-positioned to lead a recovery in global smartphone sales, with its innovative AI features and potential ventures into foldable phones. While geopolitical factors could present hurdles, the expected market growth and Apple’s strategic moves offer a promising outlook. As the industry evolves, keeping an eye on technological advancements and market trends will be crucial for stakeholders.
