The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has announced that the recent government shutdown has led to the cancellation of two significant economic data releases. The agency revealed this adjustment on its webpage, indicating that the interruptions from the shutdown are continuing to affect its operations and data collection. This move affects how economists, investors, and policymakers perceive upcoming labor market conditions. The need for accurate data to assess economic health becomes more critical given the current uncertainties in the labor market.
What Will Happen to the JOLTS Data?
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for September, originally slated for release on November 4th, will now be postponed. The BLS intends to combine this data with October’s statistics, to be issued on December 9th. Concerns regarding data timeliness and accuracy arise as market participants rely heavily on such information; however, the agency’s decision underscores the challenges of recovering routine functions post-shutdown.
Why Is the Employment Situation Report Significant?
Another crucial report affected is the October Employment Situation, initially scheduled for November 7th. The BLS clarified that data from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey for October would be included with the November figures, anticipated on December 16th. Still, the Current Population Survey (CPS) data collection was disrupted, leaving a gap that cannot be retroactively filled. The lack of such critical data impacts decisions by market analysts and government officials.
Historically, BLS data releases have been a cornerstone for understanding labor market trends. Any delays or alterations in publication timelines can ripple through economic forecasts and monetary policy preparations. The disruption from the shutdown is unprecedented for this type of data, making it challenging to juxtapose with previous instances of governmental interferences or delays.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt highlighted the complications posed by these missing reports, noting they hinder policy formation.
“All of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period,” she mentioned, emphasizing the significance of such data in assessing economic health.
The relevance of the Employment Situation report has only increased, given the volatile conditions of the labor market and ongoing debates on interest rates. Economists and policymakers are keen to understand the trajectory of employment, wages, and inflation for informed decision-making in the coming months.
Additionally, Leavitt expressed concerns about the lack of October employment and inflation data.
“The lack of October employment and inflation data makes it significantly more difficult to assess the economy’s health and the trajectory of inflation and wage growth to guide monetary policy,” she remarked.
These missing insights could influence decisions at the Federal Reserve and impact its policy stances.
Decisions from agencies like the BLS have considerable implications across various sectors. Their data guides monetary policies and influences financial markets, which in turn affects everyday economic activities and planning. The impacts of this disruption will likely reverberate in the short term as experts, and officials attempt to navigate without complete data sets.
