A significant acceleration has been observed in global trade, with artificial intelligence (AI) products playing a pivotal role in this surge. As reported by the World Trade Organization (WTO), AI-related goods have driven nearly half of the increase in worldwide merchandise trade during the first half of the year. This trend marks a notable shift in the global trading landscape, emphasizing the growing demand for digital infrastructure and its associated products.
Compared to earlier assessments, recent data highlights an unprecedented rise in AI-related trade. These products, including semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment, have not only made up 15% of global imports and exports but have also accounted for 43% of the overall trade growth. This increase represents a year-over-year growth of nearly 20%, reaching a value of $1.92 trillion. Such statistics contrast sharply with non-AI goods, which only witnessed a growth of less than 4% during the same timeframe.
How Much Has Global Trade Grown?
The WTO has reported that global merchandise trade volumes grew by 4.9% year-over-year in the first half, thanks in part to AI-product contributions. Additionally, other positive influences include businesses in North America ramping up imports ahead of potential tariff implementations and favorable economic conditions such as disinflation and supportive fiscal policies.
What Role Did Emerging Markets Play?
Aside from the United States, emerging markets and Asian suppliers have significantly contributed to AI-related trade growth, accounting for nearly 40% of the increase. This trend has highlighted these economies’ increasing prominence. The WTO noted that a broader structural wave in digital investment has predominated over recent trade policy changes in driving this expansion.
The director-general of the WTO, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, highlighted the strategic responses of countries towards tariff changes and the trade among emerging economies, which have collectively mitigated potential trade setbacks.
“Countries’ measured response to tariff changes… helped ease trade setbacks in 2025,”
she remarked.
Forecasts for merchandise trade growth in 2025 have been adjusted upwards by WTO economists to 2.4%, from a previous prediction of 0.9%. The ability of AI products to enhance productivity and decrease trade costs was noted as a critical factor that could further boost global trade by nearly 40% by 2040.
Promoting growth through AI presents opportunities and challenges. Policies fostering education, training, and inclusivity are essential to maximize benefits while addressing potential inequalities.
“The expansion of AI-related trade… represents a broader structural wave of investment,”
stated the WTO report, urging a balanced approach.
The detailed analysis from the WTO underscores a distinct pivot in global trade dynamics, emphasizing the significant contribution of AI-related products. As digital infrastructure investments grow, the impact on trade patterns will likely continue to evolve, urging policymakers to strike a balance between development and equitable policy formulation, ensuring that trade benefits are widespread.
