The challenges faced by early-career workers in the ever-evolving job market have been intensified by the rapid advancement of generative AI technologies. As the workplace landscape shifts, those entering the job market, particularly individuals aged 22 to 25, are witnessing diminished opportunities in fields closely tied to AI capabilities. According to a detailed study by Stanford researchers, a notable 13 percent decrease in employment is evident in professions like coding and customer service where AI’s presence is significant. These findings highlight the broader implications of emerging technologies on employment, especially for younger demographics.
In a stark contrast to current findings, earlier analyses postulated that AI might create as many jobs as it displaces. Such studies emphasized potential growth in sectors like AI model development and maintenance, which weren’t as highlighted in the current analysis. While past research highlighted opportunities in emerging tech-specialized roles, the latest study showcases a more immediate adverse impact on young workers. The current focus shifts towards the direct disruption of traditional roles without immediate compensation by new job types.
What Has Changed in the Job Market?
Stanford Digital Economy Lab’s research team, including Erik Brynjolfsson and Bharat Chanda, delved into employment patterns from late 2022 to July 2025. Using comprehensive data from ADP, the largest payroll processor, they evaluated millions of worker records across various firms. The analysis reveals that younger employees in AI-exposed roles, such as software development, have suffered a substantial 20 percent employment dip since late 2022. Conversely, positions less impacted by AI, like nursing aides, have either maintained or increased their workforce levels.
Why Are Experienced Employees Faring Better?
Older, more experienced workers have seen a rise in employment opportunities within similar sectors. The researchers suggest that “tacit knowledge”—skills honed over time—may offer protective value against AI replacement in job roles. Senior workers possess expertise that generative AI models might not easily replicate, providing them with an edge in retaining employment. This demonstrates the enduring value of human experience in an increasingly automated world.
Job disruption primarily affects roles where AI can automate tasks efficiently without much human intervention. However, in environments where AI serves as an enhancement tool, assisting in learning, reviewing, or refining work, employment numbers are not only stabilizing but also growing. This trend highlights the dual nature of AI, serving as both a disruptor and an enhancer in varying contexts.
The shift in employment patterns coincides with evolving educational trends. Fields traditionally associated with high AI impact, such as computer science, are seeing stagnating enrollment growths. This marks a substantive change from past decades, where computer science was a rapidly growing field among students, highlighting a potential reevaluation of career aspirations linked to technology.
AI’s labor impact might mirror historical technological disruptions, such as the information technology surge, which initially displaced certain roles but eventually ushered in new employment opportunities. Stanford researchers remain focused on tracking these shifts, understanding both the similarities and distinct differences AI presents compared to previous technology-driven changes.
“Historically, as work got replaced by new technologies, there was new work that was created,” stated Chanda, indicating a potential for new job creation despite current challenges.
Insights into the evolving AI-affected job market emphasize the need for adaptability in workforce skills and education. Although AI can automate repetitive tasks, it might open avenues requiring human creativity and strategic oversight. As the workforce landscape continues to shift, younger workers and educational institutions might need to adjust to the changing dynamics to better position themselves for future job markets.
